The US intervention in Caracas sparked a wave of hope among many Venezuelans. But why? For over two decades, Venezuela has been a political lightning rod, often viewed through ideological lenses. The right uses it to criticize left-wing policies, while the left tends to shy away from the topic. However, these perspectives often overlook the country's descent into authoritarianism and its devastating impact on its people. This makes it difficult to understand why many Venezuelans, particularly those in the diaspora, greeted the US intervention with a sense of relief, even joy.
Geopolitical Precedents: A Risky Game
From an international standpoint, the situation presents significant risks. History, as seen in Iraq and Libya, teaches us that toppling an authoritarian regime can easily lead to instability, violence, and institutional collapse, causing immense suffering.
Furthermore, former US President Donald Trump's actions were not presented as being in the interest of the Venezuelan people. Instead, he explicitly stated his strategic interests. This raises a crucial point: such actions undermine the principles of international law and set a dangerous precedent. Consequently, his warnings to Colombia and statements about Greenland become even more concerning. Therefore, condemnation of the US intervention must be clear and unwavering.
The Human Cost: A Different Reality
However, this condemnation must coexist with the reality faced by the majority of Venezuelans, for whom life has become a daily struggle. This is the perspective that guides my approach to Venezuela, rooted in both personal experiences and academic research. Through personal connections, I sought to understand the country during the Chávez era, and I've analyzed the migration patterns of displaced people, particularly the policies of Colombia and Peru, which have received nearly eight million Venezuelan refugees.
My research has shown how, behind the political debates, there are countless stories of loss and interrupted life projects.
A Call for Change: The Growing Consensus
Since 2017, there has been a widespread agreement, both inside and outside Venezuela, on the need for political change. This consensus was fueled by economic collapse and increasing authoritarianism under Nicolás Maduro's regime, evident in the worsening humanitarian crisis, the exodus of citizens, the repression of protests, and the replacement of the National Assembly with a Constituent Assembly. This consensus wasn't driven by ideology but by the conviction that the system could no longer guarantee fundamental rights and basic living standards.
The 2024 Elections: A Glimmer of Hope?
A divided opposition meant that this consensus didn't fully materialize until after the 2024 presidential elections, which were held under unfair conditions. The disqualification of opposition candidate María Corina Machado, who had won the October 2023 primary, and her successor, Corina Yoris, was followed by intensified repression. Moreover, nearly 30% of Venezuelans, who had been forced to leave the country, were unable to vote.
After the election on July 28, 2024, Maduro was proclaimed president by the National Electoral Council. However, the opposition, with the support of organized citizen groups, meticulously gathered and verified records and showed that they had won with 67% of the votes.
But here's where it gets controversial: Winning under these conditions had immense symbolic significance, but it didn't lead to a change in the regime. Rights violations continued without immediate consequences.
International Response: A Lack of Action
Faced with this sustained deterioration, the international community failed to mount an effective response. Neither the diplomatic blockade of 2019, which followed the breakdown of constitutional order, nor the Barbados Accords, which aimed to pave the way for guaranteed elections in 2024, were successful.
Exhaustion and Relief: A Complex Emotion
In this context of exhausted stagnation, the relief, or even hope, felt by much of the Venezuelan diaspora after the US intervention begins to make sense. My Venezuelan friends Andrés, César, and Génesis, who emigrated first to Peru and then to Spain, reacted to the US intervention with nostalgia and restrained joy. They now believe that the situation will improve, and that regime change could bolster the country’s economy. If this happens, César’s father might be able to receive cancer treatment without relying on remittances from abroad.
Another friend, Alejandra, who left Venezuela for Colombia after the 2017 protests, has been torn between concern over President Trump’s policies towards Latin America and the hope that things might improve. She is now considering returning.
The sentiments expressed by many Venezuelans are not just an emotional reaction, but also a rational assessment. The country had been in a state of collapse for years, with any domestic avenues for change closed off. Although Trump’s statements are not encouraging – with ambitions regarding oil, postponing democratic transition, and the risk of armed conflict – there seems to be hope, however fragile, for change.
Andrés and Alejandra both reject the “inhumane” nature of Trump’s policies and acknowledge his interests in Venezuela. But they also believe that Venezuela’s oil was already in the hands of Russia and China, and agree that there is now a possibility that the country could, over time, once again become a place where they could live.
Contradictory Hope: A New Beginning?
And this is the part most people miss: The paradox is clear: what the world sees as a serious disruption of the international order is also, for many people, the first step out of a years-long dead end, even though it may not ultimately lead to real change. We can acknowledge this contradiction without legitimizing the intervention or ignoring its dangers. For many Venezuelans, merely breaking what seemed like absolute paralysis is enough to see this moment as a new beginning, however fragile and uncertain it may be.
What do you think? Do you agree with the Venezuelans who see this as a potential turning point? Or do you share the concerns about the US intervention? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
